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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 10

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(:18) 6-N.Rose 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.22 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 10, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model