4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 94

New York Giants 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to WAS 46, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to NYG 48 for 6 yards (29-N.Berhe).

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.22 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 94, worth -5.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 52, worth -2.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model