4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 39

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to NYG 3, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-47-Q.Dunbar.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.01 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 39, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 48, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP