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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 21
New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(6:05) 26-O.Darkwa left guard to WAS 19 for 2 yards (92-S.McGee).
The Three Options
GO
+2.50 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.32 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
KICK
+1.44 EP
- 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 10% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT
-0.31 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
