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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 72

New Orleans Saints 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 6-T.Morstead punts 60 yards to LA 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.20 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 30, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP