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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 67

Los Angeles Rams 10 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(:48) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to NO 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.10 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model