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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 32

Los Angeles Rams 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 4-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.96 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model