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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 57

New Orleans Saints 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 6-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to LA 17, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.87 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 57, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model