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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 20 at the 30

Los Angeles Rams 20 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 4-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.31 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model