Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 79

New Orleans Saints 10 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to LA 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-32-T.Hill, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 79, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model