4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 28

Los Angeles Rams 17 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 4-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.00 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model