Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 77

New Orleans Saints 10 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 6-T.Morstead punts 67 yards to LA 10, Center-49-Z.Wood. 10-P.Cooper to LA 23 for 13 yards (42-Z.Line). FUMBLES (42-Z.Line), ball out of bounds at LA 29. PENALTY on LA-47-K.Peterson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 23.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.78 EP
55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 77, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model