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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 67

New Orleans Saints 10 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 6-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to LA 9, Center-49-Z.Wood. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at LA 49 for 40 yards (50-G.Hodges).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.08 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model