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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 45

Los Angeles Rams 17 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(:02) 4-G.Zuerlein 63 yard field goal is No Good, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. 19-T.Ginn at NO -7 pushed ob at NO 25 for 32 yards (6-J.Hekker).

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.22 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model