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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 69

New Orleans Saints 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to LA 18, Center-49-Z.Wood. 10-P.Cooper to LA 24 for 6 yards (31-C.Banjo; 30-D.McDougle). PENALTY on LA-32-T.Hill, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 24.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.63 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 27, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP