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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 61

Los Angeles Rams 10 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(12:14) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to NO 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.36 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 20, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model