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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 50

New England Patriots 35 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to MIA 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.69 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 50, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP