Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 85

New England Patriots 28 – Miami Dolphins 17

(10:37) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to MIA 39, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Grant ran ob at MIA 39 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.36 EP
60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 85, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model