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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 25

New England Patriots 28 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 34-R.Burkhead left guard to MIA 27 for -2 yards (56-D.Godchaux; 50-A.Branch).

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.43 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model