Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 39

New England Patriots 28 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 6-R.Allen punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.43 EP
71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 39, worth -1.89 EP

KICK -0.47 EP

45% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
55% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -2.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model