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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 10 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 16-M.Haack punts 39 yards to NE 28, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-D.Amendola to NE 28 for no gain (35-W.Aikens). FUMBLES (35-W.Aikens), recovered by NE-31-J.Jones at NE 23. 31-J.Jones to NE 23 for no gain (35-W.Aikens).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.60 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 25, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP