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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 10

Miami Dolphins 7 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 1-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 10, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model