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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 46

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(:34) 2-A.Lee punts 42 yards to JAX 4, Center-49-J.Drescher, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.49 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model