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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 52

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 3-B.Nortman punts 37 yards to ARI 15, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.37 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 52, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP