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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 4-P.Dawson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.30 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 16, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model