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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 80

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(:40) 3-B.Nortman punts 50 yards to ARI 30, Center-49-C.Holba, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.82 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 37, worth -2.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model