Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 55

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

(2:26) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Drescher, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.07 EP
72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 55, worth -2.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model