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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 85

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 3-B.Nortman punts 59 yards to ARI 26, Center-49-C.Holba. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 45 for 19 yards (94-D.Smoot).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.13 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 85, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.44 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 43, worth -2.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP