Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 60

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Arizona Cardinals 13

(3:19) 3-B.Nortman punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Holba, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.58 EP
70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model