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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 24

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 4-P.Dawson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.56 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 34, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model