Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 18 at the 77

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(:55) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 55 yards to HOU 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-C.Thompson MUFFS catch, recovered by HOU-31-T.Decoud at HOU 15. 31-T.Decoud to HOU 15 for no gain (88-V.Mayle). play reads 55 yards but Koch gets credit for 62 including the muff yardage

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.36 EP
76% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model