Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 65

Houston Texans 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(2:25) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to BAL 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.48 EP
71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model