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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 44

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(5:12) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 34 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.04 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.35 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model