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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 31

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(2:58) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.36 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 31, worth -2.20 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +0.88 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -1.16 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model