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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 13

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(10:59) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.49 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 13, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model