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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 87

Houston Texans 13 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(1:30) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 36 yards to HOU 49, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-51-D.Cole.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.53 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 87, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 45, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model