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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 18

Houston Texans 10 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(4:40) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.16 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 18, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model