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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 35

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(:12) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Tucker is 4-6 FGA from 50+ yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.61 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model