Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 74

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(1:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LV 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-42-C.Kreiter.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.16 EP
59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model