4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 46

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 7-M.King punts 38 yards to DEN 8, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.26 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model