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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 50

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 7-M.King punts 43 yards to DEN 7, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.79 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model