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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 76

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to LV 34, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.69 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP