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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 20 at the 73

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to LV 33, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard to LV 34 for 1 yard (50-Z.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.59 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 31, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model