Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 75

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(12:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to LV 20, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.04 EP
59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model