Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 77

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

(2:31) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to LV 40, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-31-J.Simmons.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model