Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 79

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(6:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to LV 42, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard to LV 48 for 6 yards (14-C.Latimer).

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model