Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(14:12) 7-M.King punts 56 yards to DEN 13, Center-59-J.Condo. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 21 for 8 yards (20-O.Melifonwu).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 69, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model