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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 25

Cleveland Browns 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(:14) 5-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.16 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model