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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Cleveland Browns
4th & 4 at the 42
Cleveland Browns 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 30
What Actually Happened
(1:39) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass incomplete short middle to 80-R.Louis.
The Three Options
GO
+0.30 EP
What Happened
-
41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.48 EP
- 59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -1.20 EP
KICK
+0.37 EP
Model's Pick
- 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
- 52% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
