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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 9

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 5-Z.Gonzalez 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.43 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 9, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model